Bitcoin Recovers in June Despite ETF Outflows; Sentiment Diverges From Broader Risk Appetite

 Key Takeaways:

*BTC faces headwinds, as observed in BTC ETF, which has had significant net outflow lately. 

*The Crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to ease, suggesting that the sentiment in the market remains neutral.

Market Summary:

Bitcoin rebounded in early June after retreating from its all-time high of $112,000, finding solid support just below the $104,000 level. The recovery comes despite notable headwinds, including over $250 million in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs across three consecutive sessions—typically a bearish signal for the asset.

The resilience in price suggests that near-term selling pressure may be waning, even as institutional flows show signs of cooling. Analysts note that the recent ETF outflows reflect a tactical rotation rather than a wholesale exit from crypto exposure, with longer-term investors potentially taking profits after Bitcoin’s record-setting rally in May.

What’s particularly notable is the divergence between Bitcoin’s price action and broader market sentiment. While U.S. equities remain buoyant, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has slipped below 60, marking a return to neutral territory. This suggests that current price dynamics are being shaped more by crypto-native factors than by shifts in macro risk appetite.

Market participants will be closely watching for signs of renewed ETF inflows or institutional accumulation, which could provide the next leg of support for Bitcoin. Until then, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with traders eyeing $104,000 as a critical support zone in the short term.

Technical Analysis

BTC, H4

Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience after successfully retesting its previous consolidation range, a move that appears to have absorbed remaining liquidity before establishing a firmer base for potential upward movement. The cryptocurrency now trades comfortably within its ascending channel, signaling a possible bullish reversal following its recent corrective phase. However, the path forward faces a critical challenge at the $107,000 resistance level, which represents both a psychological barrier and a technical inflection point for the market.

The improving technical picture becomes evident through momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index has been steadily advancing toward its midline from previously oversold conditions, reflecting a gradual return of buying interest. More significantly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator continues its recovery after completing a bullish golden cross at depressed levels, suggesting the bearish momentum that dominated recent trading may be exhausting itself.

This technical setup presents Bitcoin at a pivotal moment. A convincing breakout above $107,000, particularly when accompanied by strong volume and confirmation from momentum indicators, would provide substantial validation for bulls and could open the door to retest recent record highs. Conversely, the resistance zone may still provoke profit-taking from earlier buyers, potentially leading to another period of consolidation before any sustained upward movement materializes.

Resistance Levels: 111,745.00, 117,200.00
Support Levels: 102,260.00, 96,725.00