Crude Oil Falls After Surprise US-Brokered Ceasefire Announcement

 Key Takeaways:

*Trump announces tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire deal

*Oil drops to weekly low despite recent geopolitical risk premium

*No official confirmation from Tehran; risk sentiment remains fragile

*Explosions still heard in Tehran, clouding ceasefire credibility

Market Summary:

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a tentative ceasefire, scheduled to begin at midnight Washington time on Monday. Trump, who ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities just days prior, made the announcement via Truth Social, stating the two nations had shown “Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence” in ending what he termed “THE 12 DAY WAR.”

Oil prices, which had surged on escalating Middle East tensions, reversed course and fell sharply following the announcement—dropping to their lowest level in more than a week. However, market participants remain cautious, as Iran has yet to officially confirm the ceasefire. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei previously stated that Iran “will never accept an imposed peace,” raising doubts about the sustainability of the truce.

Meanwhile, local reports still indicate explosions in Tehran despite the ceasefire news, adding uncertainty to the situation. Until more clarity emerges from Iranian officials, traders are expected to remain on edge.

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Technical Analysis 

CL-Oil, H4: 

Crude oil prices are trading sharply lower in the aftermath of Trump’s ceasefire announcement, with the commodity testing a key technical support zone near $64.70—a level not seen in more than a week. A decisive break below this threshold could open the door for further losses toward the next major support at $60.15, a region that coincides with historical demand and psychological round-number support.

Momentum indicators present a mixed signal. The MACD shows accelerating bearish momentum, confirming the recent downside pressure, while the RSI has fallen into oversold territory at 28, suggesting the potential for a near-term technical bounce. 

Traders should monitor price action closely, as any sustained recovery above $67.90 would indicate easing bearish pressure and possibly a return to consolidation territory. However, failure to hold above $64.70 may prompt further liquidation and speculative positioning toward lower levels.

Resistance level: 67.90, 71.90
Support level: 64.70, 60.15