Crypto Rally Stalls as Traders Eye Fed Outlook, Geopolitical Risks

Key Takeaways:

*Market corrects after Ethereum’s 40% surge since August amid cooling sentiment.

*Stronger-than-expected 0.9% print tempers Fed rate cut hopes and risk appetite.

*Traders eye Trump–Putin Alaska meeting as Crypto Fear & Greed Index slips to neutral.

Market Summary:

The digital asset market has entered a period of consolidation following its remarkable August rally, with Ethereum’s impressive 40% gain leading a broader crypto market advance that now appears to be taking a breather. This pause in momentum comes as investors digest conflicting signals about the macroeconomic landscape and brace for potential volatility from today’s high-profile diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders.

The cooling sentiment emerged after Wednesday’s unexpectedly strong U.S. Producer Price Index report, which showed a 0.9% monthly increase that surpassed economist forecasts. This hotter inflation reading has caused market participants to reassess the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, removing one of the key supports for risk assets in recent weeks. The shifting expectations are reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index’s retreat from “greed” to “neutral” territory, with its current reading of 59 indicating a more balanced market sentiment following August’s exuberant rally.

Geopolitical considerations are adding another layer of complexity, as traders cautiously await developments from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. The high-stakes diplomatic meeting has introduced an element of uncertainty that appears to be prompting some risk reduction across digital asset portfolios. Ethereum’s remarkable outperformance—which saw it lead the broader market higher throughout August—now faces its first significant test as these macroeconomic and geopolitical crosscurrents emerge.

While the long-term fundamentals for cryptocurrencies remain robust, supported by ongoing institutional adoption and technological advancements in blockchain infrastructure, the current environment suggests markets may need time to consolidate recent gains. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether this pause represents healthy profit-taking within a sustained uptrend or the beginning of a more significant pullback, with particular attention on Ethereum’s ability to maintain its leadership position amid these new challenges. 

Technical Analysis 

ETH, H4

Ethereum retreated from near its record peak just below the $4,800 mark, sliding more than 6% in the previous session. The token has repeatedly found support above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,461.55—holding this zone on three separate occasions—before staging a sharp rebound. The price action suggests ETH remains within its broader bullish trajectory. Technical indicators reinforce the outlook: the RSI has bounced from oversold territory and broken above the midline, while the MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, both signaling the potential for a trend reversal.

Resistance level: 4852.90, 5120.25

Support level: 4358.65, 4016.35