Oil Prices Remain Elevated Near Four-Month High on Geopolitical Supply Concerns

Key Takeaways:

Crude oil trade to 4-month high as supply concern mount on geopolitical instability, 

President Trump reportedly has a plan to attack Iran could escalate the tension in the region. 

Market Summary:

Crude oil prices continue to hold near $76 per barrel, trading at their highest levels in four months as escalating geopolitical tensions in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions. The market remains particularly sensitive to developments in these key oil-producing regions, where ongoing conflicts threaten to constrain global supply.

In Eastern Europe, Russia’s oil exports – accounting for roughly 10% of global supply – continue to face uncertainty amid persistent regional instability. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the strategic Strait of Hormuz has become a critical flashpoint as the Israel-Iran conflict enters its seventh day. This vital waterway handles approximately 15% of the world’s oil shipments, and any disruption could significantly tighten global markets.

Recent reports indicate President Trump has approved potential strike plans against Iran but is withholding final authorization to allow for diplomatic resolution regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. However, Iran’s leadership has rejected calls to stand down, instead warning that U.S. intervention would escalate tensions further and prompt massive retaliation against Israel.

These developments continue to support oil prices at elevated levels, with the potential to push them higher should tensions worsen. The Middle East’s central role in global oil production – representing nearly one-third of worldwide output – means sustained conflict could keep upward pressure on crude prices. At the same time, the situation may bolster demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, creating a complex dynamic for commodity markets.

Technical Analysis 

Crude Oil, H4: 

Crude oil prices continue to consolidate near the $76.00 level, testing a critical four-month high as traders await decisive momentum to confirm the next leg higher. The market’s ability to sustain these elevated levels reinforces the underlying bullish sentiment, despite showing some signs of near-term exhaustion.

Earlier sessions saw a modest technical pullback, but prices found firm support above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $73.20. This successful defense of a key technical level suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, with buyers stepping in to support prices on dips.

Technical indicators present a nuanced picture:

• The RSI continues to hover in elevated territory, though not yet in overbought zone
• The MACD shows some flattening, indicating the bullish momentum may be moderating
• The $76 resistance level remains the immediate upside target for bulls

A confirmed breakout above $76 could open the path for further gains, while failure to breach this level might lead to extended consolidation. Traders should watch for either a decisive breakout or potential reversal patterns as the market weighs ongoing supply concerns against signs of moderating momentum.

Resistance Levels: 80.25, 83.80
Support Levels: 71.25, 66.85