Oil Prices Rise as Trade War Risk Returns, OPEC+ Maintains Output Hike

 Key Takeaways:

*Crude oil prices surged as U.S.-China trade tensions intensified, lifting the market’s geopolitical risk premium.

*OPEC+ confirmed a July supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day, signaling confidence in demand resilience.

Crude oil prices extended gains at the start of the week, buoyed by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions that stoked geopolitical risk across energy markets. Beijing’s imposition of rare earth export controls—coupled with retaliatory U.S. tech sanctions—raised fears of supply chain disruptions with potential downstream effects on industrial output and refined product demand. Market participants also focused on the political fallout from the breakdown of the Geneva trade truce, as both sides exchanged accusations of economic provocation, undermining global growth sentiment.

Despite these tensions, OPEC+ confirmed it will move ahead with its previously announced plan to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, citing resilient demand and balanced inventories. While this output boost would mark the group’s highest production levels in 2025, the commitment was framed as a stabilizing measure, with officials pointing to consistent refinery utilization and moderate stock builds as signs of underlying market strength.

Still, traders remain wary of the medium-term demand outlook, particularly as global manufacturing data softens and trade policy uncertainty persists. China’s May PMI fell below the 50-mark, and tariff snapbacks in sectors exceeding 100% are now a growing possibility, adding to downside risks for consumption. Yet for now, the market appears more focused on the elevated geopolitical risk premium, with rare earth supply constraints and lingering Russia-Ukraine disruptions helping to offset the bearish implications of additional OPEC+ barrels.

As crude prices navigate between these opposing forces, volatility is expected to remain elevated. Attention in the coming sessions will center on whether the U.S. escalates trade penalties further and how Chinese policymakers respond to mounting pressure on their industrial sector. The evolving trade landscape and OPEC+’s supply discipline will likely determine the trajectory of prices through the summer months.

Technical Analysis

USOIL, H4

Oil prices surged nearly 3% in early-week trading, breaking out decisively from a descending triangle pattern and surpassing the key resistance level at $61.25. This technical breakout signals a potential bullish reversal, suggesting renewed upward momentum may be building in the energy markets.

While the price action has turned constructive, momentum indicators currently reflect a more neutral stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near the 50 level, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to hover flat along the zero line, showing a lack of strong directional conviction.

The breakout above $61.25 is particularly significant as it confirms a shift in market structure, but traders will be watching for follow-through buying to validate the bullish signal. Should momentum indicators begin to turn upward in conjunction with the price breakout, it could reinforce the case for a sustained rally.

Resistance levels: 64.50, 66.55

Support levels: 60.00, 58.10