Oil Rises on Supply Jitters Amid Russian Sanctions and OPEC+ Output Plans

 Key Takeaways:

*Supply fears rise as U.S. mulls new sanctions on Russia.

*OPEC+ may announce another 411,000 bpd hike at its next meeting.

*Crude supported by stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, delaying supply return.

Crude oil prices edged higher as geopolitical tensions and supply-side uncertainty continued to dominate market sentiment. Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential for new U.S. sanctions on Russia, following remarks from President Donald Trump that Vladimir Putin was “playing with fire.” At the same time, stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have dampened prospects for any imminent return of Iranian crude to global markets.

The supply narrative is also being shaped by expectations ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting. Reports suggest that the coalition is considering another modest output increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, consistent with earlier unwinding of pandemic-era production cuts. With the group already boosting output in May and June, the market is assessing how the additional barrels may impact global balances—especially in light of potential Russian export disruptions.

Technical Analysis

Crude Oil, H4 

Oil prices are trading higher following a strong rebound off the 60.00 support level. MACD shows fading bearish momentum, while the RSI has climbed to 48 after bouncing from oversold territory—both indicators point toward the possibility of continued recovery. If upside momentum holds, prices may re-test resistance at 62.20, with an extended target at 63.90. However, failure to sustain bullish momentum could lead to renewed downside pressure, with immediate support again at 60.00, followed by 57.55.

Resistance level: 62.20, 63.90

Support level: 60.00, 57.55