Oil Surges Amid U.S. Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites

 Key Takeaways:

*U.S. officially joins Israel-Iran conflict by striking Iran’s nuclear sites

*Iran threatens potential retaliation via sleeper cells and military escalation

*Oil prices surge amid fears of Middle East supply disruptions

*Risks to Strait of Hormuz raise concerns of a global oil shock

Market Summary:

Most asset classes, including forex, commodities, and equities, traded relatively flat as market Most major Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States had struck Iranian nuclear facilities, effectively pushing the U.S. into Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran. Trump stated that the strikes had “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. This marks a dramatic shift from nuclear negotiations to direct military confrontation, severely undermining global risk appetite.

According to NBC News, Iran had warned the U.S. during the recent G7 summit that it could activate sleeper cells within the U.S. to launch retaliatory terror attacks if its nuclear sites were bombed.

Oil markets reacted swiftly, with crude prices jumping as fears grew over possible supply disruptions in a region that accounts for roughly one-third of global crude production. Futures and options volumes surged, with the forward curve reflecting increasing stress in near-term supply.

Geopolitical Risks Driving Crude Markets:

1. Strait of Hormuz Threat: Iran’s parliament has called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for about 20% of global oil flows. While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not yet approved such a move, even a one-day closure could spike oil to $120–$150 per barrel.
   
2. Targeting Rival OPEC Producers: Tehran may retaliate by striking oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or the UAE. Both Riyadh and Baghdad have expressed serious concern over the widening conflict.
   
3. Red Sea Shipping Routes at Risk: Yemen-based Houthi rebels—supported by Iran—could ramp up attacks on commercial shipping, increasing maritime insurance and further straining supply chains.

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Technical Analysis 

CL-Oil, H4: 

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices are trending higher, having recently broken above a key resistance level. Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish outlook, with the MACD showing signs of a golden cross and diminishing bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 62, indicating continued strength above the neutral 50 level, though not yet in overbought territory. 

If buying pressure persists and the price breaks above the immediate resistance at 76.40, oil could potentially extend its gains toward the next resistance target at 78.40. However, if bullish momentum stalls, a short-term pullback toward the support level at 74.40 may occur, with deeper correction possible toward 71.90 if risk sentiment deteriorates.

Resistance level: 76.40, 78.40
Support level: 74.40, 71.90